2010 Oscar predictions

After this year’s Golden Globes I am terrified to try and predict the Oscars. The last hour of the show saw every award go to upsets and generally unimpressive nominees. With the Academy voters skewing even older and more conservative, I have no idea what to expect.

But I’m willing to take a shot anyway.

Best Picture
Avatar
The Blind Side
District 9
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious
A Serious Man
Up
Up In The Air

My personal favorite in this category is District 9, even though I am well aware it would have never been nominated if the category hadn’t been expanded to ten nominees. I would be ecstatic to see it win. Unfortunately I fear Avatar or Precious may have this one locked up. I’m hoping the older demographic takes the vote away from James Cameron, although the overtly liberal slant and strong 9/11 themes will likely help voters forget the story, characters, and acting fall far short of typical Academy standards for a Best Picture winner. Dark horse-Inglourious Basterds or The Hurt Locker.

Best Actor
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
George Clooney, Up In The Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker

Jeff Bridges’ win at the Golden Globes make him the front-runner as far as I’m concerned. I am personally pulling for Jeremy Renner. He is a large part of why The Hurt Locker was such a powerful and striking film.

Best Actress
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia

Until her ridiculous upset at the Golden Globes, I wouldn’t have even considered Sandra Bullock a frontrunner in this category. I still don’t think she should be. If Carey Mulligan, Gabourney Sibide, or Meryl “T. Bone” Streep take it, I will be happy. Although I am really pulling for either of the two young ladies.

Best Supporting Actor
Matt Damon, Invictus
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds

If it’s anyone other than Christoph Waltz I will eat my hat. And I don’t even wear a hat. I will buy a hat just so I can eat it.

Best Supporting Actress
Penélope Cruz, Nine
Vera Farmiga, Up In The Air
Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart
Anna Kendrick, Up In The Air
Mo'Nique, Precious

After Mo’Nique’s antics demanding fees for any promotional appearances pertaining to The Little Indie That Could™, I was absolutely convinced she would be shut out of any awards. I don’t know if those stories weren’t widespread enough to affect the Golden Globes or if people just weren’t as personally offended by them as I was, but I’m hoping that the older and more conservative Academy voters heard and remember them. Otherwise, I’m betting she has a lock on this. My personal faves? Vera Farminga or Anna Kendrick.

Best Director
James Cameron, Avatar
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
Lee Daniels, Precious
Jason Reitman, Up In The Air

As long as James Cameron doesn’t take it I can die happy. I will even be the first to concede he created a visually stunning piece of art. But the job of director encompasses more than stunning visuals. (That’s the art director’s job.) Everyone else on this list is a worthy recipient, even though I feel Kathryn Bigelow truly deserves the statuette this year.

Best Adapted Screenplay
District 9, Neil Blomkamp & Terri Tatchell
An Education, Nick Hornby
In The Loop, Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci & Tony Roche
Precious, Geoffrey Fletcher
Up In The Air, Sheldon Turner & Jason Reitman

My complete and utter love of District 9 has me hoping this movie takes every award for which it was nominated. But honestly? In The Loop had the sharpest and tightest script.

Best Original Screenplay
The Hurt Locker, Mark Boal
Inglourious Basterds, Quentin Tarantino
The Messenger, Alessandro Camon & Oren Moverman
A Serious Man, Joel & Ethan Coen
Up, Bob Peterson, Pete Docter & Thomas McCarthy

This shouldn’t go to anyone other than Tarantino. The dialogue is what made that movie stand out for me and that is exactly the thing for which it should be rewarded. (Although I wouldn’t cry if the Coens took this one home.)

Best Foreign Language Film
Ajami (Israel, Dir. Scandar Copti & Yaron Shani)
The Secret In Their Eyes (Argentina, Dir. Juan José Campanella)
The Milk Of Sorrow (Peru, Dir. Claudia Llosa)
A Prophet (France, Dir. Jacques Audiard)
The White Ribbon (Germany, Dir. Michael Haneke)

Haneke’s win at the Golden Globes make him a front-runner here. However, I am going to continue to defer to my friend and give this one to A Prophet. Why? Because my friend says so and I have no reason to not believe him.

Best Animated Feature
Coraline (Dir. Henry Selick)
Fantastic Mr. Fox (Dir. Wes Anderson)
The Princess & The Frog (Dir. Ron Clements & John Musker)
The Secret Of Kells (Dir. Tomm Moore & Nora Twomey)
Up (Dir. Bob Peterson & Pete Docter)

I am confident Pixar will continue their reign, even though I think Fantastic Mr. Fox really deserves it this year. But I will never begrudge Pixar an award. They consistently do good work and good work needs to be rewarded.

Best Animated Short
French Roast (Dir. Fabrice O. Joubert)
Granny O'Grimm's Sleeping Beauty (Dir. Nicky Phelan & Darragh O'Connell)
The Lady & The Reaper (Dir. Javier Recio Garcia)
Logorama (Dir. Nicolas Schmerkin)
A Matter Of Loaf And Death (Dir. Nick Park)

I have no first-hand knowledge of any of these nominees. I will arbitrarily choose French Roast simply because I managed a café for seven years and a French roast was part of our house blend. And if this wins I will call myself the greatest Oscar prognosticator of all time!

Best Documentary Feature
Burma VJ (Dir. Anders Østergaard & Lise Lense-Møller)
The Cove (Dir. Louie Psihoyos)
Food, Inc. (Dir. Robert Kenner & Elise Pearlstein)
The Most Dangerous Man In America: Daniel Ellsberg And The Pentagon Papers (Dir. Judith Ehrlich & Rick Goldsmith)
Which Way Home (Dir. Rebecca Cammisa)

I have friends who are so excited Food, Inc. is nominated I am tempted to pull for it. But I have heard far too much buzz surrounding The Cove to think any other documentary has a chance.

Best Documentary Short
China's Unnatural Disaster: The Tears Of Sichuan Province (Dir. Jon Alpert & Matthew O'Neill)
The Last Campaign Of Governor Booth Gardner (Dir. Daniel Junge & Henry Ansbacher)
The Last Truck: Closing Of A GM Plant (Dir. Steven Bognar & Julia Reichert)
Music By Prudence (Dir. Roger Ross Williams & Elinor Burkett)
Rabbit A La Berlin(Dir. Bartek Konopka & Anna Wydra)

This is another category about which I have no first-hand knowledge. So I will make an educated guess for The Last Truck simply due to the timeliness of the subject matter. Not as scientific a method as my coffee shop form of guessing, but likely more accurate.

Best Live-Action Short
The Door (Dir. Juanita Wilson & James Flynn)
Instead Of Abracadabra (Dir. Patrik Eklund & Mathias Fjellström)
Kavi (Dir. Gregg Helvey)
Miracle Fish (Dir. Luke Doolan & Drew Bailey)
The New Tenants (Dir. Joachim Back & Tivi Magnusson)

Continuing with the uneducated guesses, I will choose The New Tenants because I am planning a move in the near future, which would make me a new tenant.

Best Cinematography
Avatar, Mauro Fiore
Harry Potter & The Half-Blood Prince, Bruno Delbonnel
The Hurt Locker, Barry Ackroyd
Inglourious Basterds, Robert Richardson
The White Ribbon, Christian Berger

This is one of the few categories where I will not be angry if Avatar wins. It was a beautiful movie. In fact, it won my personal award for Prettiest Film. Saying that, the cinematography in The Hurt Locker actually made me stop and take notice. The opening scene was downright striking and its impact was as powerful as the IED that killed the first team leader. Any movie that takes the stark monochromatic beauty of a desert and uses it as smartly as Barry Ackroyd did deserves more recognition than a mere award.

Best Art Direction
Avatar
The Imaginarium Of Dr. Parnassus
Nine
Sherlock Holmes
The Young Victoria

Avatar will likely win this. I didn’t see The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus, but I would imagine either that or Sherlock Holmes are its only real competitors. I think I might be pulling for Sherlock Holmes simply for its recreation of Industrial Revolution-era London. But that doesn’t matter because Avatar is going to win.

Best Costume Design
Bright Star
Coco Before Chanel
The Imaginarium Of Dr. Parnassus
Nine
The Young Victoria

My money is on either Bright Star or The Young Victoria. The Academy loves giving movies set in those eras costume awards. Dark horse-Coco Before Chanel. I’m just uncertain whether a lack of classic Chanel designs in that movie will hurt or help its chances.

Best Makeup
Il Divo
Star Trek
The Young Victoria

Um, maybe Star Trek? That movie had some interesting looking aliens in it. Maybe?

Best Film Editing
Avatar
District 9
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious

I never know how to critique editing in a film. The only time editing has ever stood out, other than egregious examples of bad editing, is The Fifth Element. I guess I’ll throw my vote behind Inglourious Basterds due to the final scene. As the action cut between all the corners of the theatre and the sit-down with The Jew Hunter and Lt. Aldo Raine, the impact intensified up until the final image of her laughing face being projected onto the smoke.

Best Sound Editing
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Star Trek
Up

Best Sound Mixing
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Star Trek
Transformers: Revenge Of The Fallen

These are the categories, just like film editing, where I’m just not sure how to judge. And what differentiates sound editing from sound mixing? (Seriously, if you know say something in the comments.) I feel the immersive nature of the Avatar viewing experience was indebted to the sound so I’m going to go ahead and predict that movie for both categories.

Best Visual Effects
Avatar
District 9
Star Trek

This is a no-brainer. And even though Avatar absolutely deserves it, I’m going to root for District 9 just because I’m a contrarian by nature.

Best Song
"Almost There" by Randy Newman, The Princess & The Frog
"Down In New Orleans" by Randy Newman, The Princess & The Frog
"Loin De Paname" by Reinhardt Wagner & Frank Thomas, Paris 36
"Take It All" by Maury Yeston, Nine
"Weary Kind" by Ryan Bingham & T. Bone Burnett, Crazy Heart

I didn’t see any of these movies, but I’m going to hope T. Bone Burnett’s Golden Globe win carries him through the Oscars just so a musician I respect can have another award. (Don’t worry; I still adore Randy Newman so a win by him would not upset me. I just think two songs from The Princess & The Frog will split the vote.)

Best Original Score
Avatar, James Horner
Fantastic Mr. Fox, Alexandre Desplat
The Hurt Locker, Marco Beltrami & Beck Sanders
Sherlock Holmes, Hans Zimmer
Up, Michael Giacchino

I so loved the music from Fantastic Mr. Fox I’m really pulling for it. Although the whimsical Up score was also quite lovely. I’m just terrified that a sweep by Avatar will give it an(other) award it has absolutely no place earning. Best Score wins by clean-sweep movies are always the statuettes that make me seethe with rage.

So there we have it—the hopes, dreams, and predictions of a completely unqualified lover of all things Movie. Anyone want to lay some money down?