2011 Independent Spirits Awards Predictions

BEST FEATURE
127 Hours
Black Swan
Greenberg
The Kids Are All Right
Winter’s Bone

Despite having never seen Greenberg, I’m still a little surprised to see it here. Did the category need a little padding? I heard aight things about it, but they were just aight, nothing great or spectacular enough to warrant a nomination for the Best Feature. I still think I personally preferred Black Swan for its overall effect, but if there was ever a time and a place for Winter’s Bone to win this is it. It’s too quiet and still of a movie to win the big awards so I would love to see it get recognized here.

BEST DIRECTOR
Darren Aronofsky Black Swan
Danny Boyle 127 Hours
Lisa Cholodenko The Kids Are All Right
Debra Granik Winter’s Bone
John Cameron Mitchell Rabbit Hole

And I’m again torn between Black Swan and Winter’s Bone. Aronofsky basically acted as a conductor for all of the elements in that movie, particularly in its bravura third act, but the chilly tone of Winter’s Bone perfectly set the stage for the actions and characters of that brilliant movie. And the director is directly responsible for balancing all of that and creating the mood.

BEST SCREENPLAY
Stuart Blumberg, Lisa Cholodenko The Kids Are All Right
Debra Granik, Anne Rosellini Winter’s Bone
Nicole Holofcener Please Give
David Lindsay-Abaire Rabbit Hole
Todd Solondz Life During Wartime

All of the buzz is on The Kids Are All Right winning here and I have no particular insights or opinions that challenge any of it. So consider it predicted!

BEST FIRST FEATURE
Everything Strange and New
Get Low
Night Catches Us
The Last
Tiny Furniture

Get Low wasn’t the best movie of the year, but it was a damn impressive first feature. There was such restraint and control over the entire production while still allowing room for fun, surprise and revelation.

BEST FIRST SCREENPLAY
Diane Bell Obselidia
Lena Dunham Tiny Furniture
Nik Fackler Lovely, Still
Bob Glaudini Jack Goes Boating
Dana Adam Shapiro, Evan M. Wiener Monogamy

I haven’t seen any of these, bad movie blogger!, but I hear really great things about Tiny Furniture and Jack Goes Boating. So let’s say it will be one of them?


JOHN CASSAVETES AWARD - Given to the best feature made for under $500,000.
Daddy Longlegs
Lbs.
Lovers of Hate
Obselidia
The Exploding Girl

I think the award should be for best feature made for under $50,000 myself. Then you’re working with some real restraints and creativity and ingenuity can really shine.

BEST FEMALE LEAD
Annette Bening The Kids Are All Right
Greta Gerwig Greenberg
Nicole Kidman Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence Winter’s Bone
Natalie Portman Black Swan
Michelle Williams Blue Valentine

With all of the Oscar buzz centering around Natalie Portman for a revelatory performance, I hope the independent community gives this one to Jennifer Lawrence. She grounded that film, an impressive feat for any actor but especially for her considering her young age.

BEST MALE LEAD
Ronald Bronstein Daddy Longlegs
Aaron Eckhart Rabbit Hole
James Franco 127 Hours
John C. Reilly Cyrus
Ben Stiller Greenberg

I didn’t see Daddy Longlegs so I can’t speak to Ronald Bronstein, but I would love some close-ups on my main weirdo and rambling intellect James Franco looking good in a tux so I am going to pull for him in this category.

BEST SUPPORTING FEMALE
Ashley Bell The Last Exorcism
Dale Dickey Winter’s Bone
Allison Janney Life During Wartime
Daphne Rubin-Vega Jack Goes Boating
Naomi Watts Mother and Child

I am always for more recognition for Winter’s Bone, but I hear the buzz is on Naomi Watts. Another blogger put it well when he said that this category usually goes to a bigger actress in a smaller film that isn’t otherwise recognized. Ms. Watts isn’t the only actress in the category that fits that description, but since I would also like a close-up of her dreamy husband Liev Schreiber so I throw my support behind her.

BEST SUPPORTING MALE
John Hawkes Winter’s Bone
Samuel L. Jackson Mother and Child
Bill Murray Get Low
John Ortiz Jack Goes Boating
Mark Ruffalo The Kids Are All Right

Bill Murray was utterly fantastic in Get Low and everyone loved Mark Ruffalo in The Kids Are All Right but I have to throw my vote for John Hawkes. And not just because I’m all sorts of gay for that movie, he was just THAT good. Especially when you see him in real life, being all handsome and smiley and NOT meth-addled you realize how transformative his performance really was.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Adam Kimmel Never Let Me Go
Matthew Libatique Black Swan
Jody Lee Lipes Tiny Furniture
Michael McDonough Winter’s Bone
Harris Savides Greenberg

Man, I must be Winter’s Bone biggest booster. But while Black Swan was lush and colorful and the mirrors were all used brilliantly, Winter’s Bone looked and felt chilly and set the tone and environment for everything that happened along with making a convincing universe for these characters and their motivations. That movie would have still been great based on the story and performances alone, but to me the cinematography that lifted it up and made it a Best Picture contender. I think the only other worthy recipient of a cinematography award this year is Roger Deakins for True Grit, but since the Coen's are apparently major players and not indie darlings these days, Mr. Deakins has to wait for the Oscars.

BEST DOCUMENTARY
Exit Through the Gift Shop
Marwencol
Restrepo
Sweetgrass
Thunder Soul

I’ve only seen Exit Through the Gift Shop, and I really liked it, but I’ve heard great things about Restrepo. But I want Banksy to win and come on stage in a monkey mask, or it that threat only for the Academy Awards?

BEST FOREIGN FILM
Kisses (Ireland)
Mademoiselle Chambon (France)
Of Gods and Men (Morocco)
The King’s Speech (United Kingdom)
Uncle Boonmee Who Can Recall His Past Lives (Thailand)

I’ve seen The King’s Speech, and it was great, but I don’t know how it stacks up against the others. I’d like to see something else get their shot at recognition, especially since it is going to clean up on Sunday night, but it was really good and is probably going to win this also.

ACURA SOMEONE TO WATCH AWARD – The 17th annual Acura Someone to Watch Award recognizes a talented filmmaker of singular vision who has not yet received appropriate recognition. The award includes a $25,000 unrestricted grant funded by Acura.

Hossein Keshavarz Dog Sweat
Laurel Nakadate The Wolf Knife
Mike Ott Littlerock

Seeing as this award is specifically designed to bring attention to filmmakers who have not yet received appropriate recognition, I don’t feel as bad for not having heard of any of them!

PIAGET PRODUCERS AWARD – The 14th annual Piaget Producers Award honors emerging producers who, despite highly limited resources demonstrate the creativity, tenacity, and vision required to produce quality, independent films. The award includes a $25,000 unrestricted grant funded by Piaget.

In-Ah Lee Au Revoir Taipei
Adele Romanski The Myth of the American Sleepover
Anish Savjani Meek’s Cutoff

I like the title The Myth of the American Sleepover so I vote for that movie. That actually is a pretty stellar title; like a good novel or short story it immediately makes you start thinking of all the things that could be taking place within its world.

AVEENO® TRUER THAN FICTION AWARD – The 16th annual AVEENO® Truer Than Fiction Award is presented to an emerging director of non-fiction features who has not yet received significant recognition. The award includes a $25,000 unrestricted grant funded by AVEENO®.

Ilisa Barbash, Lucien Castaing-Taylor Sweetgrass
Jeff Malmberg Marwencol
Lynn True, Nelson Walker Summer Pasture
Same canned response to the Acura award. But I would like to mention that I find it a little off-putting that there are corporate sponsors for film awards. Sigh. This truly is the New World Order.

ROBERT ALTMAN AWARD - (Given to one film’s director, casting director, and its ensemble cast)
Please Give
Director: Nicole Holofcener
Casting Director: Jeanne McCarthy
Ensemble Cast: Ann Guilbert, Rebecca Hall, Catherine Keener, Amanda Peet,
Oliver Platt, Lois Smith, Sarah Steele

I predict Please Give is going to win this award. Now it's time to drool over pictures of Joel McHale.