2011 Academy Awards Predictions

Best Picture:
127 Hours
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone

This is a tight one between Black Swan, The Social Network and The King’s Speech. They each have a lot of momentum as they come into this final race of the award’s season. Personally, my giant boner for Winter’s Bone has me pulling for it. That movie really deserves it.

Best Director:
Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, True Grit
David Fincher, The Social Network
Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
David O. Russell, The Fighter

Same three movies; all three directors with a far amount of wins under their belt already. This Oscar ceremony has a small element of unpredictability to it!

Best Actor:

Javier Bardem, Biutiful
Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Colin Firth, The King's Speech
James Franco, 127 Hours

Colin Firth. No contest. With Javier Bardem as the dark horse.

Best Actress:
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine

As much as I loved Natalie Portman in Black Swan, I’m starting to get a little fatigued by her. She is going to win even though I would love to see Jennifer Lawrence giving an acceptance speech. I really feel that if this movie came out any other year, that is exactly what we would be seeing.

Best Supporting Actor:
Christian Bale, The Fighter
John Hawkes, Winter's Bone
Jeremy Renner, The Town
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech

Christian Bale has the momentum, and is probably going to take it, but I think John Hawkes is the dark horse in this category. And I don't think he was even nominated in the one's that Bale has been sweeping.

Best Supporting Actress:
Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom

Up until the Academy actually nominated Hailee Stenfeld for this I would have just pegged Melissa Lep as walking home with it. And even though she should have been nominated for Best Actress I think the producers of True Grit showed a remarkable amount of savvy in putting her in a category she could actually, and may actually, win tonight.

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Simon Beaufoy and Danny Boyle, 127 Hours
Aaron Sorkin, The Social Network
Michael Arndt, John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton, and Lee Unkrich, Toy Story 3
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, True Grit
Debra Granik and Anne Rosellini, Winter's Bone

The Social Network. In a heartbeat. And deservedly so.

Best Original Screenplay:
Mike Leigh, Another Year
Keith Dorrington, Eric Johnson, Scott Silver, and Paul Tamasy, The Fighter
Christopher Nolan, Inception
Stuart Blumberg and Lisa Cholodenko, The Kids Are All Right
David Seidler, The King's Speech

The Kids Are All Right. In a heartbeat. Maybe this ceremony is going to be a little predictable.

Best Foreign Language Film:
Biutiful (Mexico)
Dogtooth (Greece)
In A Better World (Denmark)
Incendies (Canada)
Hors La Loi (Outside The Law) (Algeria)

I would love for Dogtooth to take this one, but my money is on Biutiful.

Best Documentary Feature:
Exit Through The Gift Shop
Gasland
Inside Job
Restrepo
Waste Land

Here’s one I’m curious about. All the buzz was behind Restrepo until Banksy went on his campaign through Hollywood. Combine that with the sheer curiosity of what would happen if he does win and I think this one is a lock.

Best Animated Feature:

How To Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
Toy Story 3

Toy Story 3. Does Pixar ever lose?

Best Cinematography:
Matthew Libatique, Black Swan
Wally Pfister, Inception
Danny Cohen, The King's Speech
Jeff Cronenweth, The Social Network
Roger Deakins, True Grit

I’m personally pulling for Deakins, but I wouldn’t begrudge a win for either Black Swan or Inception. Both movies looked absolutely gorgeous. But in my opinion Deakins is the best in the business right now so he deserves every award they are smart enough to nominate him for.

Best Editing:
Jon Harris, 127 Hours
Andrew Weisblum, Black Swan
Pamela Martin, The Fighter
Tariq Anwar, The King's Speech
Angus Wall and Kirk Baxter, The Social Network

I never feel like I know how to critique on editing. We are past the point of continuity errors by the time we get to these folks. Pacing along would give it to 127 Hours. But we are also looking at the tone and the crescendo in the third act. To me that goes to either Black Swan or The King’s Speech. Black Swan was flashier by the time we got to the actual king’s speech at the end the editing gave it a real emotional impact that you could then see the whole movie had been building up to. Either one deserves it to me.

Best Art Direction:
Robert Stromberg and Karen O'Hara, Alice In Wonderland
Stuart Craig and Stephenie McMillan, Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows, Part 1
Guy Hendrix Dyas, Larry Dias, and Doug Mowat, Inception
Eve Stewart and Judy Farr, The King's Speech
Jess Gonchor and Nancy Haigh, True Grit

I’m pulling for True Grit myself, but I would be happy with either Inception or The King’s Speech taking it as well.

Best Costume Design:
Colleen Atwood, Alice In Wonderland
Antonella Cannarozzi, I Am Love
Jenny Beavan, The King's Speech
Sandy Powell, The Tempest
Mary Zophres, True Grit

Just the brilliance of Hailee Stenfeld wearing her father’s oversized clothes makes me want it to win. Her character was immediately summed up visually right then and there.

Best Makeup:
Adrien Morot, Barney's Version
Edouard F. Henriques, Gregory Funk, and Yolanda Toussieng, The Way Back
Rick Baker and Dave Elsey, The Wolfman

Um, The Wolfman? I guess?

Best Original Score:

A.R. Rahman, 127 Hours
John Powell, How To Train Your Dragon
Hans Zimmer, Inception
Alexandre Desplat, The King's Speech
Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, The Social Network

Either The Social Network or Inception should take this. But it’s going to be Trent Reznor up there on that stage tonight.

Best Original Song:
"If I Rise" from 127 Hours, by A.R. Rahman, Dido, and Rollo Armstrong
"Coming Home" from Country Strong, by Tom Douglas, Troy Verges, and Hillary Lindsey
"I See The Light" from Tangled, by Alan Menken and Glenn Slater
"We Belong Together" from Toy Story 3, by Randy Newman

Such terrible songs this year. But I always love seeing and hearing Randy Newman. I don’t know why he didn’t get nominated for a Golden Globe. Now watch him win tonight.

Best Sound Design:
Lora Hirschberg, Gary A. Rizzo, and Ed Novick, Inception
Paul Hamblin, Martin Jensen, and John Midgley, The King's Speech
Jeffrey J. Haboush, Greg P. Russell, Scott Millan, and William Sarokin, Salt
Ren Klyce, David Parker, Michael Semanick, and Mark Weingarten, The Social Network
Skip Lievsay, Craig Berkey, Greg Orloff, and Peter F. Kurland, True Grit

This one has to be Inception. The sound in that movie was quite remarkable. And Salt got a nomination? I guess they really are just trying to make sure Angelina Jolie, Brad Pitt and Johnny Depp are in attendance.

Best Sound Editing:
Richard King, Inception
Tom Myers and Michael Silvers, Toy Story 3
Gwendolyn Yates Whittle and Addison Teague, Tron Legacy
Skip Lievsay and Craig Berkey, True Grit
Mark P. Stoeckinger, Unstoppable

Either Inception or True Grit. Why? I just can feel it in my gut. At least since Tron is nominated we'll get Olivia Wilde in a pretty, pretty dress.

Best Visual Effects:
Ken Ralston, David Schaub, Carey Villegas, and Sean Phillips, Alice In Wonderland
Tim Burke, John Richardson, Christian Manz, and Nicolas Aithadi, Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows, Part 1
Michael Owens, Bryan Grill, Stephen Trojanski, and Joe Farrell, Hereafter
Paul Franklin, Chris Corbould, Andrew Lockley, and Peter Bebb, Inception
Janek Sirrs, Ben Snow, Jed Wright, and Daniel Sudick, Iron Man 2

I think Inception deserves it for that fight scene with Joseph Gordon Levitt in the rotating hallway.

Best Animated Short:
Day & Night
The Gruffalo
Let's Pollute
The Lost Thing
Madagascar, Carnet De Voyage (Madagascar, A Journey Diary)

I am rooting for The Gruffalo just because I like that name. Quite a bit as a matter of fact.

Best Live Action Short:
The Confession
The Crush
God Of Love
Na Wewe
Wish 143

A friend of mine really like God of Love so I’m going to give that one my vote.

Best Documentary Short:
Killing In The Name
Poster Girl
Strangers No More
Sun Come Up
The Warriors Of Qiugang

Poster Girl. I mean, come on! She’s a freaking poster girl!